Why another shocking Meta capex number may keep the stock underwater

Brian SozziMon, July 27, 2026 at 1:04 PM UTC

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When Meta (META) reports second quarter earnings on Wednesday afternoon, all eyes will be on its capital expenditures plan for the rest of the year and in 2027.

This area of Meta's cash flow statement garners the most attention — not just because Alphabet (GOOGL) spooked its investor base last week by warning it intends to spend way more than expected, but also because Meta's stock price has been dead money for more than a year.

The lagging performance coincides with Meta's massive annual capex increases, seen below in the orange bars on the Yahoo Finance AlphaSpace chart.

"Capex remains a key debate [on the stock]," Deutsche Bank analyst Benjamin Black wrote in a note. Signs that generative AI is leading to additional monetization on Instagram and Facebook have so far been muted.

The debate will likely continue if some of Black's jaw-dropping capex projections come to fruition. In fact, the chorus for Meta to rein in its spending may only grow louder.

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"Prior to Alphabet recently raising FY26 capex guide, we think there were limited expectations for Meta to increase its current 2026 guidance of $125-$145 billion," Black wrote. "However, now, it is likely investors fear an increase in FY26 outlook likely may be coming."

He added that buy-side expectations for 2027 capex have been raised to "low-to-mid $200bn range (we raise our estimate to ~$210-$215 billion in 2027 and ~$265 billion in 2028). The headline investment is significant, although the directly funded amount could be lower."

"More importantly, a third-party cloud business would add a direct revenue stream against assets that investors currently value largely through indirect benefits to ads and engagement," he said.

Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor, host of the Power Players with Brian Sozzi podcast, and a member of Yahoo Finance's editorial leadership team. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.

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